Steele Creek, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

149
FXAK69 PAFG 042312
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
312 PM AKDT Sat Jul 4 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system over Bristol Bay will move into the Gulf of
Alaska by Sunday. This system will continue to spread cloudy, cooler
and showery conditions up into the Alaskan Range and Kuskokwim
valley into Sunday. Behind this system a high pressure ridge builds
over Northern Alaska with a warming and drying trend occurring
through Tuesday. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will still occur
Sunday and Monday over the higher terrain of the Interior.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Clouds, showers and cooler conditions will occur over the Alaskan
Range Sunday and Monday. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will
continue over the White Mountains and Fortymile Country.

- A warming and drying trend will occur across the Interior into
Tuesday with daytime temperatures in the 70s and lower 80s.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- The Southwest Coast and Kuskokwim Valley will dry out by Sunday
except for isolated showers and thunderstorms over the higher
terrain of the Western Interior.

- Temperatures will warm into the 60s and 70s today across most of
the region into Tuesday.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
- High pressure develops over Northern Alaska with a gradual warming
and drying trend into Tuesday. Daytime temperatures will warm into
the 50s near Utqiagvik to the 70s on the Arctic Plains.

- Occasional foggy conditions will continue along the Arctic Coast.

- Isolated thunderstorms are possible over the southern Brooks Range
this evening.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
A Bristol Bay low pressure system is moving into the Gulf of Alaska
tonight. This system will rotate a series of disturbances up into
the Alaskan Range and Kuskokwim valley with cloudy, cooler and
showery conditions continuing into Sunday. As that low moves towards
the Southeast Alaska Panhandle showers become more isolated across
the Alaska Range on Monday and Tuesday with some warming.

Farther north a weak arctic trough has moved down over the Northern
Interior with a stationary frontal boundary near a Huslia-Fort Yukon
line. Convection will be favored along that front this evening and
again on Sunday and Monday as it drifts south over the Nulato Hills,
White Mountains and Fortymile. The 12Z PAFA RAOB showed 0.80" PW so
storms will continue to produce decent rainfall. Shear was once
again minimal. Any storms closer to the Brooks Range will have less
moisture especially on Monday and Tuesday.

A high pressure ridge develops over the Arctic Plains and Brooks
Range through Tuesday. The airmass will be stable under this ridge
diminishing shower and lightning activity. There will be significant
warming and drying throughout the Northern Alaska and the Interior
under this ridge with 850mb temperatures in the 10-15C range. Will
need to monitor for heat advisories especially on the Arctic
Plains and Yukon Flats.

The next upstream Bering Sea low pressure system begins to impact
southwest Alaska on Tuesday. Still uncertainty with how strong this
system will be and how far into the Interior the moisture will get.
Both the 12Z EC and Canadian are faster than the 12Z GFS in moving
this system into the Gulf of Alaska by Wednesday. The EC/Canadian
are the preferred weaker solution with the Arctic ridge of high
pressure remaining in place over the Interior. That should favor
less shower and lightning activity and more hot and dry conditions.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Over the next several days, a high-pressure system transiting the
northern parts of the state will begin to make itself known, helping
to expand the footprint of hot and dry over much of the interior and
into the Arctic Plains (focused from Sagwon west to Umiat). Simply
put, temperatures will continue to trend upwards into the 75F to 85F
range and min RH back down to 25 to 35 percent. One exception for
min RH will likely be the southwestern portion of our area from
McGrath toward the YK Delta. Isolated thunderstorm activity Sunday
will largely be felt across the higher terrain of the interior
stretching from the Nulato Hills into the White Mountains and
Fortymile, expanding and shifting further west and north on Monday.

We are still tracking a low undercutting the state through the
weekend, which will serve as the mechanism for inverted troughs and
moisture transport into the eastern portion of the state mid-week.
Ensemble systems continue to highlight PWAT values near 1 inch, well
into the 90 th percentile for this time of year. Ridge breakdown
sometime late next week, combined with inverted troughs and
excellent moisture, will bring vigorous wet thunderstorm activity
back to the state.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Wednesday through Saturday
Moving into the extended time frame, a low will move into the
southeastern Bering Sea and from there into the Gulf by Wednesday.
As this occurs, a second low in the eastern Gulf of Alaska will
draw robust moisture into the Interior. While there is uncertainty
on any exact rainfall totals, significant rainfall with showers
and thunderstorms will be possible in the southern Interior from
Wednesday through the end of the week, including in the Alaska
Range. Many areas could see between a quarter and a half inch,
with higher totals possible locally. Heavy rain will also be
possible in the Brooks Range but is less certain. Most of the
Interior and much of the North Slope will see temperatures in the
70s or 80s, with pronounced ridging extending from Canada into
northeastern Alaska.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...None.

&&

$$

Maier/Park/Saltzman